DISQUS

rosocecasita · 1 month ago

Thank ya for the update!

zstock · 1 month ago

Gov't bubble-lolz, -you need to trademark that!

JoeMarc · 1 month ago

Hi, I assume your long then based on your commentary that folks are not so worried
" so long as the economy stays on firm enough footing to not alarm people but stays weak enough to keep interest rates at 0%, the US Dollar will continue to decline and assets denominated in Dollars will continue to inflate – including stocks"

If so, and your long, are you Long US Markets and CDN markets being the TSX, OIL, Materials ??

Thanks
Joe
Toronto Canada

chartsandcoffee · 1 month ago

I haven't repostioned myself in either direction yet. I'm still hedged. This is my hypothesis as to what is going on but ultimately I want to see the dollar regain its trend or break the 50 day SMA before I start getting long or short. I am long GLD, COW, BAL, xLE and I also added a position in USO a little while ago.

rlamura · 1 month ago

Thank you for your analysis! I was just wondering if a widely perception about investing in gold and gold related stocks because of future growing inflation and short the dollar because an ever increasing budget deficit in the long term and an interest rate spread is a sign of topping action in a short time;
What do you think? thanks!

chartsandcoffee · 1 month ago

Sorry for the late response. I missed your comment. I think too many people buy into being a contrarian and judging sentiment. For example, in 1997-1998 every idiot in the world was talking up the stock market and the Internet. Many might have thought "this is a crowded trade and everyone is in it and I'll bet against it. Well, these bubbles that the public crowds into can last for years.

So even if gold is becoming a bubble and popular sentiment is behind gold, it doesn't mean it can't go higher with the public's euphoria behind it for years.

I would say that sentiment reading works best when they are at irrational extremes. An analog would be an indicator like RSI. At 70, a stock is considered overbought. However, this doesn't mean the stock can't go much higher for a while and remain overbought. Yet, when RSI gets 90+ it becomes irrationally overbought and and a correction becomes a certainty. But, you don't get many 90+ RSI readings. The same goes with sentiment. It hardly ever hits those extremes where it can become an accurate tool for short term trading.